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June 18 很有意思的一个小游戏http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/GEOQUIZ_game.html 个人最好记录是25公里,东亚、西欧和北美准确度最高,非洲、中东和南美是重灾区,太平洋岛国直接乱点。 April 30 For what it's worthBoston Legal Skins
April 02 Bear ahead?This story, my story, happened in a thriving economy with its booming stockmarket once seeing no ceiling. When almost everyone around you were gaining fat profits simply by buying and selling shares and went into raptures at mere mention of it, even the most prudent and adamant saver would feel it is hard not to be attempted. Equipped with basic knowledges of share investing, I bought some shares of a listed company at the price of 13.5. After a rocky start, the share price rocketed its way up to 29.3 at its peak within months, as the market turned to an orgy. Although my assets already more than doubled, my greed inflated even more: I refused to sell them unless the price reaches 30. It is inevitable that bad thing happens. Since then, the shareprice began its downturn all the way to 11, showing no sign of turning back by now. March 27 'Oh my God, someone has a gun ...'This is an eyewitness account of a foreign resident in Lh@sa who took refuge in a hotel close to the centre of the t1betan capital yesterday. The city was gripped by violence after protesters and police clashed
"Oh my God. Oh no. That's crazy. One hundred people are trying to stone one man. A man was trying to cross the street with his motorcycle - they were trying to stone him but it's so crowded I can't see whether they got him or not.
"We came out for a walk about at about five today. I knew something was happening because there were a lot of people on the street. We were on Sera Street, which goes to the [Klukang] monastery. It sounds like the noise came from there; it sounds like at first they had been fighting in the temple.
"We saw people running and people in this hotel told us to get in quickly as the crowd was coming. They seem OK here, maybe the owner is t1betan. All the other hotels have smashed windows.
"The residents are very angry. They are throwing stones at anyone who is Han [Chinese] or from other minorities like the Hui, who are Muslims. It seems like it's ethnic - like they want to kill anyone not t1betan.
"I would say it's a riot here but I think in the centre it's worse. There's a lot of smoke - we can see it where there have been burnings. I heard people saying the authorities were firing, using guns. We don't know.
Here we have seen people trying to stone anyone they can - Han and other minorities, not foreigners. The t1betans had stones and knives. I saw Chinese people running away - there was nothing they could do.
"We don't see any police around here. Maybe they're all in the centre and are too busy. It's very violent.
"Oh my God. Someone has a gun in front of me. There's a group of about 20 people - two of them have handguns. They are walking the street.They're shooting. They didn't have uniforms, but the way they were in a group I thought maybe they were police. They went down the street and the first one fired, that's for sure - I think the others did; there was so much noise I can't be sure. Then some of the citizens threw stones, but not at them - in the other direction. So I don't know if they were police or maybe t1betans.
"I have just been out to get my things. We are staying at the hotel tonight. There are still people on the streets but only t1betans - if they see anyone Chinese they throw stones.
"Three times people raised their arms and then when they saw I was white they stopped it. The thing that surprised me most was that I saw no police or soldiers.
"I saw three people assaulting a man - I was 50 metres away, but I think he was Chinese. They kicked him and then one man had a knife and used it. He was lying on the floor and the man put the knife in his back, like he wanted to see he was dead.
"I had to get away, there were people throwing stones.
"When I came back he was gone - I don't know if he's dead. Then I saw people who had obviously been beaten or stoned. There wasn't blood on them but they were so shocked.
"This area used to be a place where t1betans and the Chinese were friendly.
"I think this is going to get worse. One person told me 300 people have died in the city centre [the Guardian has no information to substantiate this claim]. I just don't know."
March 15 Do not stand at my grave and weep Do not stand at my grave and weep
I am not there. I do not sleep. I am a thousand winds that blow. I am the diamond glints on snow. I am the sunlight on ripened grain. I am the gentle autumn rain. When you awaken in the morning's hush I am the swift uplifting rush Of quiet birds in circled flight. I am the soft stars that shine at night. Do not stand at my grave and cry; I am not there. I did not die. March 14 大四下了来了才知道,自己已经半年没来了。考研成绩10号晚上查到的,声讯电话里不报排名,记得得知分数后自己出奇的平静,大概是因为和自己的估计差不多的缘故吧。直到第二天在网上查到自己的排名,感觉进复试应该没什么问题,开始狂咳嗽,才发现自己一直很紧张(本人一紧张就会不自主地咳嗽)。今天下午打电话给财大研招办,研招办的老师死活不肯说分数线,说要等国家线出来才能定。自己死缠滥打、连哄带骗,终于从他们口中得出一个“(成绩)还可以”的评价,心总算稍稍放下了,然后直奔图书馆,把能找到的参考书都借来了,还从网上订购了一本,一门心思准备复试。
其实做到一门心思还不可能,五月初还得参加高级口译的口试,厚厚的一本口译书才翻了两页,另外还有9盒听译的录音没听。前两次口试都没过,第三次机会因为考研放弃了,这次再不过,笔试成绩就得作废了,这可是当年英文水平鼎盛时期考出来的,现在再考八成考不过了。当然还有毕业实习,毕业论文之类的事情,当然和上面比起来,只能算琐事了。
对了还有,前天把自己人生中的第一次工作面试献给了一家国际租赁公司。到了那家公司才知道,自己一个本科生竟然跳过人事部的一面,直接进了二面(严重怀疑对方搞错了)。二面的感觉像参加了一场财大硕士的同学会,随便问了三个,都是财大硕士,底薪要5000-6000。自己写了个3000,后来怕别人把自己看扁了,索性改成5000(本来想改4000的,不太好改,改完就后悔了)。面试简直是场噩梦,公司的董事长、总经理和财务总监都来了,一共七八个人Vs我一个(第一次这么受抬举)。看得最顺眼的是那个坐在一边埋头记笔记的,后来他用带有浓重北方口音的英语问了我几个现在看来很简单的问题,可惜我当时没听懂。面试结束后,觉得还是考上研的可能性大一点。
不过也不是没有收获的,我抓住机会向财大硕士们讨教了复试的问题,还留了手机号。出门的时候第一次近距离瞻仰了新任中华第一高楼--环球金融中心。
September 28 [经济]中国经济体检报告 (一) 最近一期的the Economist发表了一篇有关中国经济的社论,题目是"How fit is the panda?",主要探讨目前面对内忧外患,中国经济在未来的一至两年内,是否可以保持高速增长。作者以一个外国人的视角,将影响中国经济的国内国外因素一一分析,最后得出结论,除非这些威胁同时发威,它们中的任何一个,都不太可能对中国经济产生较大影响,所以中国目前的经济是健康的。
文章首先分析了现在国内讨论很多的通胀问题。作者指出造成通胀的原因不是过度需求,而是供给不足,并且主要是粮食和食品的供给不足造成的物价上涨,所以通胀率虽然达到了十年来的最高6.5%,但并不是经济过热的表现。通胀不太可造成中国经济“硬着陆”。
接着作者分析了资产价格泡沫对中国经济的影响。文中分两步分析了这个问题,首先是中国是否存在资产价格泡沫,其次是如果有,泡沫破裂会造成何种冲击。文中认为,尽管中国股市的平均市盈率达到50,似乎有点泡沫的成分,但从日本和台湾的历史经验来看,这还远未到达破裂的边缘,中国股市在转向之前还有一段路要走。由于中国股市的规模相对较小,加上中国企业中上市公司只占很小一部分,所以即使股市在今年不幸崩盘,对中国经济的影响也不大,但由于大量银行资金违规流入股市,担心股市崩盘将会对国内银行系统造成冲击,从而使影响扩大。中国的房价虽然每年以两位数的速度增长,但作者认为由于居民收入提高的幅度高于房价上涨的幅度,所以国内房地产价格不存在泡沫。对于作者的这个观点,可能大部分的中国购房者都不能认同,事实是什么我不敢肯定,但只凭感觉,至少在某些城市,收入的增长明显跟不上房价上涨的步伐,房产泡沫是肯定存在的,要不然国家何以频频出手,调控房价?
March 06 [市场]Grey Tuesday 灰色星期二迟来的抛售搅乱了股市,也惊醒了投资者
是福不是祸,是祸躲不过。自从去年5月以来,金融市场静如止水,鲜有波动。然而在2月27日,一股抛售浪潮导致股票价格一泻千里。人们总能为股市的突然下跌找到合理的解释,然而做事后诸葛容易,做到晓之于未然难度就大多了。政府准备打击投机活动的传言引发中国股市暴跌近9%,这似乎是本周市场动荡的直接诱因。然而真相是,这只是投资者为收割利润寻找的借口。 其实这样的下跌早就该发生了。美国股指日跌幅小于2%已维持了50多年,超过史上任何一段时期。保证金负债量(margin debt,股票买家向经纪人借入的资金)超过了此前互联网泡沫时创下的纪录。高收益公司债券和新兴市场债务等风险资产提供的收益也创下历史新低。 股票抛售一来便来得如此猛烈。2月27日下午3点左右,道琼斯工业平均指数已下跌几百点,然后在不到一分钟的时间内,道指直泻200点;速率之快,史无前例。 下跌如此之快起因于“制表延迟(tabulation delay)”。由于计算平均指数的数据系统来不及处理当天下午大量涌入的订单,为畅通道路,道琼斯公司与3点启用了备用系统。新系统起了作用,却引发重新调整后的道指瞬间大幅下挫。 问题不止这一个。场内交易商(floor traders,指在交易所场内主要为自己或自己占有份额的帐户进行交易的交易所成员—译注)无法追踪电脑驱动的订单,特别是卖出上市交易基金(ETF,盯住某一指数的股票组合)的订单。当日道指最大跌幅达546点,成为史上最大单日跌幅之一。 对纽约证交所的首席执行官约翰·塞恩(John Thain)来说,没有一条是利好消息。下午三点的大崩盘后不久,他便出现在交易大厅里,看上去惊慌失措的他不停地驱赶着前来的记者。在传统的交易所和电子网络之间的竞争愈发激烈的时候,他最不希望听到的就是有关纽约证交所是否还具有活力的质疑声。 华尔街为世界其它地方的股市定下了基调:欧洲、亚洲和新兴市场的股市不可避免地紧跟着大幅下跌。但在2月28日,美国股市出现回稳迹象。 但果真如此吗? 注重观察“经济基本面”的投资者当然有担心的理由: 伊朗核计划引发的紧张局势不见缓和;每桶石油的价格比近期最低价高出10美元。最近次优房贷市场上的违约现象不仅可能会给其他债券的投资者带来不利影响,还会切断房市的信贷来源。最近的数据显示美国经济走弱,美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘也在公开探讨美国经济衰退的可能性。 而他的继任者本·伯南克则竭尽全力缓和经济衰退的预期所带来的紧张气氛。如果他出了错,他总还有个杀手锏——降息。资金向安全资产转移的现象(flight to safety)使得国债收益率下跌,降低了购房者的借款成本。
![]() 然而,这次暴跌究竟是一时的动荡,还是市场大幅调整的开端,取决于市场内部的变动,而非整个经济体的发展。波动率较低的时期风险交易旺盛。对冲基金天生倾向于卖出低收益的资产,购进高风险高收益的金融工具,以此取得正收益或者“套利”。当市场出现动荡,这些头寸将迅速贬值。比如2月27日日元对美元小幅升值了2.3%,卖出日元买进美元的投资者积累下来的年利息所得瞬间被抵消了一半。这样,这些“套息交易”的玩家们可能会决定拆仓止损。 如果它们果真如此,其他投资者也会迅速转移资金。投行广泛采用“风险价值”模型:当市场波动率上升时,它们将减少交易资金,而这通常意味着减持资产。由此,波动率的突然上升将会导致市场上更大的波动。长景经济顾问公司(Longview Economics)的策划师克里斯·沃特林(Chris Watling)最近预测将有一次市场调整:“这次抛售还只是个警告,未来几周这还将愈演愈烈。” 关键是参与者中有多少进行了这般相同的赌博。好进就好出的想法是金融市场上最老套的错误之一。高盛的报告显示,波动率指数(Vix,衡量股市波动性大小的指数)最近的上升了800点。如果常规的模型无误的话,这在已知世界的历史中本不该发生。其实历史早在去年就上演过一次,能源价格的变动导致了对冲基金Amaranth的破产,当时Vix升幅达到了900点。 这是市场易受突发不利事件影响的原因,也解释了为什么借钱投资是危险的。如果一些银行和大的对冲基金被这次突然抛售逮个正着,这次“2·27事件”的影响将会更加持久。尽管股市的历史上不乏更加黑暗的“星期二”,但这一次投下了道长长的阴影。 (Collision译自The Economist(2007/3/1) 参见原文) March 01 [人物]米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)--经济学界的小个子巨人 2006年11月16日,20世纪后半叶最伟大的经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)先生与世长辞,享年94岁。 上个世纪四五十年代,在经历了大萧条的恐慌和二战的浩劫之后,凯恩斯主义开始在经济学界和政界大行其道。人们搬用凯恩斯的《通论》,认定政府应该充当自由市场的主宰,通过政府消费和投资,确保经济的增长和控制失业率。那时,倡导自由经济的学者,包括弗里德曼,以及《通往奴役之路》(“The Road to Serfdom”)的作者哈耶克(Friedrich von Hayek,1974年诺贝尔经济学奖得主)被主流思想视为异类。弗里德曼和1982年诺贝尔经济学奖得主乔治·施蒂格勒(George Stigler)合著的发表于1946年的学术论文《屋顶还是天花板》(“Roofs or Ceilings”)由于着力抨击当时政府的"房租管制"政策而饱受争议。当时《美国经济评论》(American Economic Review)的一位评论员将其斥为“政治文稿”、“胡言乱语”,称他们“不配经济学家的称号”。 然而就是这位身材矮小,满口“胡言乱语”的“异类”,改变了二十世纪后50年经济学的走向,也影响了包括美国在内的许多国家政府的经济政策。 弗里德曼出生在纽约的布鲁克林,13个月大的时候,随全家搬到新泽西的罗威市(Rahway)。由于"总是说话很大声,象大喊大叫一样",他在上学的时候得到了个绰号“Shallow“(意为“肤浅”,取成语“静水流深”still water runs deep的反意)。弗里德曼一生爱好辩论,这不仅使他成为最伟大的经济学家,同时也是极有影响力的人物。 1962年弗里德曼的《资本主义和自由》(“Capitalism and Freedom”)一书出版。在这本论著中,弗里德曼将经济自由与政治自由结合到一起,提出没有经济自由就没有政治自由;除了必要的措施,政府应尽量少干预经济。他在书中阐释原理,证明美国政府当时采用的14项经济政策是不合理的,这些政策包括补贴农产品,附加关税和进口配额,实行房租管制,保障最低工资等等。其中许多政策今天已经废止,比如废除美军兵役制,弗里德曼扮演了重要角色。 弗里德曼的第二个贡献,就是革命性的改变了经济学家和决策者对待货币和通胀的方式。在这一革命之前,各国政府遵循"菲利普斯曲线"(the Phillips curve),认为失业率和通胀率是此消彼长的关系,政府可以通过稍稍高通胀来降低失业率。而这在过去长期的统计上似乎可以得到印证。而弗里德曼则认为“这是个错觉”,如果政府企图通过调高通胀率来降低失业率,长期的来说只会使得通胀水平越来越高。后来美国经济的表现证实了他的理论:70年代,尽管美国政府不断调高通胀率以减少失业,美国经济还是出现了滞胀,即高通胀率和高失业率并存的现象。基于此,他提出了通过控制货币供应量来调控经济的“货币主义”(monetarism)。 第三, 弗里德曼是现代消费理论的奠基人。他提出持久收入假说(permanent income hypothesis)解释了储蓄率不随着国民变富而升高的矛盾。此外,弗里德曼较为重要的贡献还有“学券制”(Education vouchers),并在一些国家,如南非,得到实施。 由于消费分析、货币供应理论及稳定货币政策等领域的贡献,弗里德曼先生获得了 1976年诺贝尔经济学奖。这个小个子当之无愧的经济学巨人。 (Collision 编译自 the Economist) [人物]The Federal Reserve's Chairman-Hitting his stride 渐入佳境的伯南克本·伯南克已为自己赢得了尊重,问题是现在他如何推进美联储改革?
去年的本周,本·伯南克接替艾伦·格林斯潘就任美联储主席。当时,华尔街的评论员们心存两大疑虑:其一, 这个“直升机阿本”是否是个值得信赖的反通胀斗士?对不少券商来说,本·伯南克仍是那个曾想到通过空降钞票来抑制通缩的美联储理事。其二,这个前普林斯顿大学教授在美联储推行他长期支持的通胀目标制改革,其进度如何?一年下来,似乎这两个问题的答案分别是“是的”和“缓慢”。 尽管开局不利,本·伯南克还是赢得了“反通胀斗士”的称号(见下表)。他的声誉在去年五月降至底点。上任不久的本·伯南克向国会议员表示即便通胀率上升,央行也有可能暂停加息。债市将这视为加息周期结束的信号,反通胀强硬派人士也开始变得忧心忡忡。随后伯南克私下向一位记者表示市场误解了他的意思,结果使事态愈发不可收拾。 这个挫折虽然严重但并未持续很久,伯南克的声望自去年夏天以来稳步上升。很大程度上是因为他的判断被证明都是正确的:其中最值得称道的是,在8月房产业萧条、通胀压力已经缓解的背景下,他虽然停止紧缩银根将联邦基金利率维持在5.25%不变,但也同时又保留强硬立场。目前看来经济确实并未受到房市降温的负面影响,正如他当时所断言的那样。 两个月前,金融市场还曾确信美联储虽然措辞强硬,但不久便会减息。但在强劲的数据面前,华尔街也开始对伯南克亦步亦趋。于1月31日公布的初步数据显示,2006年第四季度产出量年增长率为3.5%,超过了同期的经济增长率,显示经济发展一片大好。当天,尽管承认通胀水平“稍有“上升,美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)还是保持了一贯的强硬态度,宣布再次将联邦基金利率维持在5.25%不变。 同时,华尔街开始逐渐习惯伯南克掌门的美联储的行事风格,那就是比格林斯潘的风格更民主了。伯南克改革了FOMC会议的形式以鼓励论辩。美联储副主席唐·科恩(Don Kohn)的影响力也出奇地大,过去六个月给市场带来最大影响的,莫过于此人的言论。美联储对内部的不同意见相当宽容。里齐蒙得联邦储备银行主席杰夫·莱克(Jeff Lacker)反对8月份暂停紧缩银根的决定。作为拥有表决权的委员,他在随后的每次FOMC会议上都投了反对票,直到12月任期结束。 这种学院派作风也是美联储推行通胀目标制的进度慢于外界预期的一个原因。有些美联储理事尽管认可通胀目标制原则上可行,但他们仍不愿意对依然奏效的现行体制作出变革:研究通胀目标制可行性的特别委员会(其负责人唐·科恩反对通胀目标制)看上去并不着急。外部环境也不乐观:美联储偏好的价格量尺——个人消费支出(包括石油和食品支出)平减指数仍高于1-2%。美联储向来不热衷于设立明确的通胀目标,1-2%被外界广泛认为是其非正式的目标。国会中的权力转移也阻碍了改革的进程。民主党对通胀目标制疑虑重重,担心它会削弱美联储的另一个法定目标,即最大限度地提升就业率。众议院金融服务委员会主席巴利·弗兰克(Barney Frank)对此更是百般质疑。 美联储内部频繁的人事更替让局势变得更加不明朗。FOMC中到处都是新面孔;除了伯南克,去年理事会又添三位新成员,而目前仍有一个理事席位虚座以待。其中的一个新人弗莱德里克·米什金(Frederic Mishkin)是远近闻名的通胀目标制支持者。地方联储银行的人事变动也不可忽视:8月,前经济学教授查里斯·普罗斯尔(Charles Plosser)就任费城联储银行主席;11月,杰克·盖恩(Jack Guynn)卸任亚特兰大联储银行主席,至于继任者还未提名;波士顿和芝加哥的联储银行主席都在FOMC拥有表决权,他们最近相继表示即将离任。尽管在是否公开通胀目标的问题上分歧严重,美联储的理事们已经在讨论提升透明度的其它途径。提高发布经济预测的频率便是其中之一。目前,基于理事会成员和地方联储银行的评估,美联储每半年发表一次有关经济增长、通胀和失业率的预测报告。而在将来,内容更为详尽的经济预测报告有可能每季度发表一次。改革步伐小得可怜,但至少朝对了方向。 (Collision 译自 the Economist, Feb 1st 2007 参见原文) [金融]Crude suggestion 油价:债市晴雨表?(Collision 译自 the Economist, Feb 1st 2007 参见原文)
油价与债券价格之间可能存在着令人不安的联系 股市暴跌的消息总能挤进晚间电视的新闻公告牌,但债券市场上的动荡却得不到相同的关注,尽管这个固定收益市场决定着政府、公司和房主们的贷款利率,在经济中发挥着举足轻重的作用。于是人们可以为自己无视美国债券价格近来的跌势找到借口。债券价格下跌推动其收益率一路飞涨直到1月31日才稍有回落。当日10年期国债的收益率达4.83%,比十二月初高了将近0.5个百分点。作为十年前世界市场上的基准利率,30年期国债的收益率也攀升至近5%。 美国经济的状况和美联储的政策姿态显然是引起这一变化的原因。在十二月初人们普遍预测,面对不景气的经济,美联储将会在2007年上半年下调利率。但最近的数据显示经济走势较预期强劲,这使得许多经济学家不得不降低减息的预期。 然而,债券市场可比简单的“息涨则跌,息跌则涨”的口诀复杂多了。首先,债券运作时类似一种负反馈系统;当债券收益率上升,抵押贷款利率也随之上升(特别是在美国,其贷款利率与债券利率挂钩)。高利率创伤房地产市场,进而影响到整个宏观经济,其结果是压低债券的收益率。 其次是债券与油价之间复杂多变的关系。在70年代,高油价仅仅意味着高通胀,导致债券价格下跌。如今,部分由于合理的货币政策,这种关系已经发生逆转:油价越高,经济越不景气,债券价格越高。 石油和债券之间的这种关系成了世界经济的“自动调温器”:油价上涨将抑制需求,冷却经济;而由此造成债券收益率的降低反过来增强了消费者的信心,使经济回热。在最近的几个月间,与油价走低(对消费者有利)形影相伴的是债券收益率的上升(对消费者不利)。 这种联系还在加强。当油价上涨,资金流入产油国的国库。有些人相信这有助于压低债券的收益率,理由是这些石油美元将会像亚洲国家过剩的储蓄一样被投资于美国的债券市场。 但给这种直接关系下个准确的定义并不容易。对此,英国巴克莱银行认为是油价与石油输出国组织(OPEC)的国债持有量之间明确的关系。然而IMF的一项研究并没有找到油价与10年期国债收益率之间有联系的证据。基金管理集团PIMCO的Raman Toloui的一份论文也未发现两者之间有任何直接关系。他展示了近来石油输出国如何以快过亚洲国家的速度囤积外汇储备:据他估测,去年这些国家的外汇储备增加了5000亿美元,而亚洲国家仅为2840亿美元。这些盈余的储备很多流向了本国的央行或政府机构,如科威特投资局(Kuwait Investment Authority)。Toloui先生推算原油价格每上升10美元,石油输出国的外汇储备就增加900至1000亿美元,而它们的外汇总资产至少已达1.5万亿美元。 没有准确的数据告诉我们这些资金被投向何处,但据Toloui先生的推测,其中的40%已有定论:其中很大一部分(达2/3)被投资于银行存款和短期证券,只有3%被用来购买美国长期国债。 乍一看来,似乎石油美元推动债券收益率大起大落的论断并不成立。因此,人们似乎不必担心油价下跌会使国债市场失去一位大买家。 然而,石油美元有可能是以间接的方式流入国债市场的,比如通过为产油国服务的基金管理公司。其实只要OPEC成员国将外汇储备投向日本等一些国家,这些国家便可以用这些钱到美国投资,支撑美国的经常项目逆差。 美国人因此有理由担心他们的债券市场。亚洲国家的央行购买美元,其目的是操控本国汇率,从而保持其出口商品的竞争力。石油输出国看起来不会像亚洲国家的央行一样热衷于购买美元。甚至包括中国在内的一些亚洲国家已经在讨论投资外汇储备的新途径。 从长远来看,为了维持其经常项目逆差,美国将会付出更大的代价,这是熊市来临的信号。照此看来,最近债券收益率的上涨可能仅是滑向深渊的第一步。 February 01 Intern这几天在一家会计师事务所见习,大部分时间无所事事,昨天下午输了两个多小时的明细账数据,眼珠子都快掉下来了,今天上午被主管会计七弄八弄,打印出来只有薄薄俩张纸,感叹...不过查出了一处错帐,小有成就感。 [金融]Credit derivatives-The tender age 信用衍生工具-脆弱时期Collision译自The Economist(2006/4/22)
尽管市场蒸蒸日上,信用违约互换却遭遇意外的麻烦 过去的几个月对信用衍生工具的买家来说可谓苦不堪言。他们中包括购买了作为市场基石的信用违约互换(CDSs)的银行和对冲基金。这个金融世界新兴的领域涉及价值17万亿美元的合同,超过了全世界所有公司未偿债务的总和。信用衍生工具在债务人破产时为债权人提供保护,或者说它是债权人预期债务人会破产时的避险工具。最近,这些预期与现实大相径庭。 首先,今年前三个月几乎没有一家公司破产。信用评级机构称,这是近十年来发生违约最少的时期。这对各个公司来说是件好事,但对互换的买家来说则是坏消息。与此同时,分析家们称信用违约互换合同的数量仍有较大增幅。这些因素或压低了信用衍生工具的费用,或缩小了利差。买家们购得保护却在因此亏钱(尽管卖方从中得利)。 然而,分析家们认为,令信用衍生工具的买家受伤最深的是个有点不可思议的技术问题。一些公司出人意料地买回了自己的债券。回购债券消除了违约风险,导致以这些债券为标的的信用违约互换合同的价格纷纷下跌,情形惨不忍睹。 J. Sainsbury公司便是其中之一。为了削减财务成本,这家英国的超市连锁上月回购了价值17亿英镑(折合30亿美元)的未偿债券。这意味着没有“可交割的”债务可供保险,替代它的,是住房抵押贷款支持证券,由以英国灯塔命名的Longstone和Eddystone作为两个新的实体发行。信用违约互换的投资者们损失惨重。当去年Sainsbury苦苦挣扎时,相关互换价格有的高达每单位标的债务150个基点,而如今跌落到20左右。 无独有偶。丹麦的电信公司TDC在去年欧洲最大的杠杆收购中被并购。当该公司宣布作为交易的一部分,将平价赎回其债券时,此前被认为将飞涨的债券互换费应声下跌。 在美国,信用违约互换的买家中尚难觅恐慌的踪迹。但一家名为Cendant,经营旅游、休闲和物业的多元化集团公司的重组还是引发了不小的混乱:由于人们预测该公司把自己一分为四时将回购其债券,信用违约互换费上月直线下跌。 一时间,信用违约互换合同的持有者无一例外地发现:按照承诺,他们一直在为即将化为乌有的债券支付保险费,这无异于为一辆离报废不远的汽车买保险。美林主管欧洲信用衍生工具的策划师Jon Jonsson认为欧洲和美国公司法中的差异是投资者受困的主因。 鉴于此,国际互换与衍生金融产品协会(ISDA)正在着手一项调查,研究是否需要对信用违约互换的标准条文作些修改,将企业重组和杠杆收购所引发的风险纳入其中。ISDA总顾问Kimberly Summe表示,许多变化已在酝酿之中。 尽管对买家不利的当然对卖家有利,但这种技术上的失误引发的混乱削弱的是所有人的信心。正如IMF最近指出的那样,信用衍生工具市场使银行能够转移信用风险,提升放贷条件的透明度,甚至熨平信用周期,有利于整个金融系统的稳定。 对流动性的担心和一波接一波的恐慌在二级市场司空见惯。当买家们突然发现手中的保险合同一文不值时,产生恐慌便在情理之中。现在,至少警钟已向他们敲响。 December 23 牛市年底股市牛气逼人,不论是炒股还是炒基金的同学都赚得盆钵满金,聊起股市便心花怒放,我心里不免也直痒痒。下学期的证券投资老师已经放出话来,证券投资课成绩的40%要看平时炒股的收益情况。虽然是虚拟炒股,尚无赔钱之忧,但分数还是要尽量保住的。在金钱的诱惑和老师的威逼之下,终于决定把今年的奖学金拿出来炒股,赚了当然好,赔了也不可惜。
狠下决心之后,问同学怎么开户,好像挺麻烦,要跑好几个地方,决定还是考完试再说吧。希望现在股市不要涨得太猛,留点潜力等到我入市呵。证券投资老师信心满满,说什么沪市年底破2500,明年破3000,本人可没这么乐观,别赔钱就满足了。 [金融]Streets ahead of the rest 美国投资银行:遥遥领先Collision 译自 The Economist print edition Dec 19th 2006
不再低调
一年来,华尔街的证券公司巨头们已赚得盆钵满金,就算Croesus*再世,恐怕也相形见绌。高盛、贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)和雷曼兄弟公布的盈利皆创下历史新高,超过了此前分析家们的预期。原定于12月9号发布报告的摩根斯坦利今年表现同样惹眼。根据金融新闻公司彭博资讯的估计,投资银行业在2006财年的税后利润达291亿美元,比去年增长了43%,而此行业去年亦大获丰收。纽约的街头小报兴高采烈地抛出诸如“高盛人:血拼掠夺者”*等标题,想象着丰厚的奖金所可能买的各式商品。 业绩最好的高盛拿出史无前例的165亿美元犒劳麾下的能人干士,平均下来,每个雇员可以获得62万美元的奖金。但由于盈利实在太多,以至于付出的薪金与总收入的比例不升反降,为43.7%,远低于50%的行业最高限。 对许多奢侈品经销商和豪宅经纪人来说,这可是个大好消息。他们渴望从华尔街的盛餐中分得一杯羹,而不只是捡捡面包渣。Jack Mitchel为一些金融大腕装备行头,据他所言,定制西装的订单比较去年有所增加。纽约的市政官员们同样心花怒放:他们已经大幅削减了这个城市预算赤字的预测,部分原因便是由于投行缴纳税款的激增。 这些银行的丰厚收益拜几近完美的市场所赐。随着股市的上涨(道琼斯指数上周创下新高),兼并和私人股本繁荣发展。市场上行情稳定,信贷充足。对冲基金频繁交易衍生金融工具,使这些银行的大宗经纪业务迅速增加。在这种情况下,投行(目前为止)已从改善自身的风险行为中获益颇丰。整个行业的风险价值(用于计量在某一不利的交易日可能遭受的潜在价值损失)稳步上升。高盛净收入中的七成来自于公司用自己帐户中的资金进行的交易和投资。 这样的大好形势当然不会一直持续下去。在市场转风向时,投行希望它们广泛的业务范围将会帮上忙。亚洲和欧洲的市场前景良好,除了贝尔斯登,现在所有主要投行在美国境外都开展了大量的业务。它们同时也在积极扩充危机债券*及破产团队的兵力,这一利润之源可以减轻违约上升和债务市场恶化所带来的不利影响。 高盛的老板Lloyd Blankfein(此人今年将至少5000万美元收入囊中,创下又一行业纪录)号召他的军团在回味硕果累累的一年时尽量低调行事。但当投行在包括股价在内的几乎所有指标上都胜过商业银行时,不洋洋自得似乎也难。处在削减成本、提高股价双重压力之下的花旗集团目前是这种自得情绪针对的主要对象。引人注意的是,这个金融集团对其五年期负债付出的利息稍高于雷曼和贝尔斯登。 此外,任何配得上其丰厚薪酬的投资银行家都知道谦恭温顺可换不来钱赚。圣诞节腾出一两天重新熟悉熟悉家人之后,这些投行家中的大多数人下周又将冲回各自的办公桌,急不可耐地再赚上一笔。 *Croesus为古土耳其的一位国王,十分富有,后人常用rich as Croesus来表示extremely rich,比方说,如今的全球首富Bill Gates就常被冠以这个头衔。 *“Sachs of Loot”原文载于《纽约邮报》,美国较有影响力的小报之一。 *危机债券(DistressedDebt),指面额折价超过50%的债券。 October 09 [政治]<转>Shanghaied -- 再见,“上海帮” 上海市市委书记陈良宇突遭撤职让“见多识广”的上海人吃惊不小,一时间,飞短流长,众说纷纭。挪用社保基金的罪名看似严重,但还不足以把堂堂上海市“一把手”搁倒在地,民间早有流言甚欢,曰:陈之垮台乃胡锦涛之杰作:胡陈二人因房地产宏观调控之事而生龃龉,陈之拍案而起使胡震怒,胡遂将陈...云云。这篇探讨陈良宇撤职事件的文章原刊于the Economist (06/9/28),提供了国外观察家的一个版本,与民间流行的版本大致吻合,本人从网上找到一篇译文,配合原文一并放出,仅供参考。
Hu Jintao sticks out his elbows and fires Shanghai's party chief
胡锦涛出手,开除上海市委书记
如今中国的权力斗争没有象在毛泽东统治下的那般残酷无情,但9月24日上海市委书记陈良宇被撤职的处理让人又想起了过去时光。陈的照片,讲话和访谈录被从官方网站上撤除。关于他将上海建设成“社会主义现代化的国际经济中心”的理想也随之灰飞烟灭了。 Rumours had long been swirling that Mr Chen was in trouble. The arrest in August of Qin Yu, a district chief in Shanghai and a former senior aide to Mr Chen, suggested that the noose was tightening. Mr Qin (who is also a translator of Jean-Paul Sartre) was accused of involvement in the misappropriation of $400m of the city's social-security funds. Now investigators say Mr Chen himself played an unspecified part in the scandal. He is also accused of “seeking benefits for a number of unlawful enterprise owners”, protecting lawbreaking aides and seeking illegitimate gains for his relatives. The government's news agency, Xinhua, said this had created a “vicious political impact”. Several Shanghai officials as well as business leaders are being investigated. 关于陈有麻烦的传闻流传了很长一段时间。 8月份秦裕的被逮捕表明风声越来越紧,秦是上海市某区区长,曾担任陈的高级助手。秦(他也是萨特著作的译者)被指控违规使用高达4亿美元的社保基金。如今调查人员说,陈本人在这个丑闻中扮演了特殊的角色,还被指控“为一些非法企业主牟利”,袒护违法的下属及为亲属获得非法利益。根据中国新闻机构,新华社的说法:造成了“很恶劣的政治影响”。与此同时,几位上海的官员和商业巨子也受到讯问。 Mr Chen is the most senior party leader to be accused formally of wrongdoing since Beijing's party chief, Chen Xitong (no relation), was forced from office in 1995 and later jailed on corruption charges. In both cases, struggles among top leaders appear to have played an important role. Shanghai's Mr Chen, who studied at Birmingham University in England for a few months in 1992, was appointed as party leader and a member of the Politburo ten years later, at the same time as Hu Jintao became the party's general secretary. Mr Chen clearly owed his rise to the patronage of Mr Hu's predecessor, Jiang Zemin. This made him vulnerable. 陈是自从陈希同(和陈良宇的案件没有关系)以来因为腐败而被免职的最高官员。陈希同是前北京市委书记,1995年被免职随后以腐败的罪名入狱。对这两个案件而言,高层的权力之争显然是一个重要的因素。上海的陈于1992年在英国的伯明翰大学学习过几个月,10年后成为一名党的地方领导和政治局委员,而胡锦涛同期也成为党的总书记。陈的提升显然归功于胡的前任江泽民的赏识,这也因此埋下伏笔。 But whereas Chen Xitong was a political giant who was seen at the time by Mr Jiang as a direct challenge to his power, there is little sign that Mr Hu's leadership has been seriously threatened by Chen Liangyu. It appears more likely that Mr Hu has moved against Mr Chen in order to demonstrate his resolve in the face of a more general threat: that of provincial and lower level leaders blithely ignoring the central government's efforts to tame the economy. With the help of compliant local banks, many are investing in lavish new projects and encouraging speculation in real estate. The central government fears this is creating bubbles in the property market that could threaten social and financial stability. 当时的陈希同作为政坛强人,被江看作是对其权力的一个直接挑战。而没有迹象显示陈良宇对胡的领导权有任何严重威胁。更可靠的说法是,胡开除陈是为了在面对更广泛的威胁中展示权威:这些威胁包括省及其以下的官员们漠视中央对经济的调控意图。在地方银行的配合下,许多豪华项目上马,纵容房地产的投机行为。中央政府担心由此导致房地产市场上泡沫的产生,威胁到社会及金融的稳定。 The timing of Mr Chen's fall is important too. The party has just announced that its Central Committee will hold its annual session from October 8th to 11th. A key theme will be how to establish a “harmonious society”. This principally means how to curb an upsurge of protests around the country, fuelled by corruption. During the meeting, Mr Chen is likely to be expelled from the Politburo (his duties have already been “suspended”). By targeting Mr Chen, Mr Hu is, as the Chinese put it, “killing the chicken to scare the monkeys”. In the buildup to a five-yearly party congress due to take place in late 2007, many local officials will end their terms. Mr Hu wants them replaced with loyalists. In Shanghai, the city's mayor, Han Zheng, has taken over as acting party chief, but it is likely that Mr Hu will send one of his protégés to fill the post. 陈下台的时间也耐人寻味。共产党刚刚宣布一年一次的党的中央委员会将在10月8日到11日举行。会议的主题是建立“和谐社会”。主要是指如何控制由于腐败而导致的,日趋增多的抗议。预计陈在会上有可能被免职(现在他的职务已被“暂时终止”)。胡拿陈开刀,按照中国的说法是,“杀鸡儆猴”,为的是2007年晚些时候召开的五年一次的党代表大会安插自己的亲信,届时许多地方官员将任职期满。在上海,作为市长的韩正已接任为代理市委书记,但胡很有可能随后将安排他的亲信接替这个位子。 At the central level, there is little sign of any concerted challenge to Mr Hu. Observers of Chinese politics often refer to a “Shanghai gang” of politicians who came to power thanks to their association with Mr Jiang when he was the city's party chief in the 1980s. But Mr Jiang's influence has ebbed considerably since he gave up his last position, as military chief, in 2004. He has kept quiet on state affairs. China's vice-president, Zeng Qinghong, at one time considered a Jiang loyalist, has shown no obvious sign of resistance to Mr Hu. Another Jiang ally in the Politburo's nine-member standing committee, Huang Ju (a former Shanghai party chief), has been ill with cancer for the past several months. 在中央一级的层面上,几乎没有什么势力会威胁到胡的地位。中国政治问题的观察家,通常将80年代江在上海任市委书记时与他有关联而掌权的人称为“上海帮”。但随着他交出最后一个职位“军委主席”,他的影响力明显削弱了,渐渐淡出政坛。而曾经被认为是:“江派”人物的国家副主席,曾庆红,也无意对抗胡。作为政治局9名常委中的一员,另一位“江派“人马黄菊(曾任上海市委书记)在过去几个月中身患癌症。 Mr Hu's problem with local governments is largely one of the party's own making. The party decrees that maintaining social stability is of paramount importance. To local officials this means keeping growth rates high, regardless of any damage to the environment or buildup of bad loans in the banking system. When they hear the central leadership call for more rational growth, they reckon that ignoring the centre is less politically risky than the potential consequences of an economic slowdown, which could exacerbate unemployment and thus social tensions. 胡与地方官员的问题相当程度上是共产党自己造成的。党把“社会稳定”作为首要任务时,地方政府官员解读为,以牺牲环境和银行系统的稳定来保持经济的高速增长;而当中央号召“理性增长”时,地方官员却认为由此会导致经济速度增长速度放缓而造成失业率恶化,影响到社会稳定,(相比于环境破坏等影响而言问题更严重)。从政治上来说,他们漠视此项指令,会更保险些。 For all Mr Hu's resolve in dealing with Mr Chen, he and his prime minister, Wen Jiabao, sometimes appear to lack determination when it comes to steering the economy. Unlike his predecessor, Zhu Rongji, who took considerable political risks to steer China into the World Trade Organisation in 2001, Mr Wen has made more concessions to a groundswell of economic nationalism. It is unclear whether he will heed an outcry from abroad over new regulations issued this month by Xinhua aimed at tightening its control over the distribution of news services in China by foreign agencies. This has been viewed as an effort by Xinhua to displace foreign companies such as Reuters and Bloomberg, which dominate the provision of financial news and information to Chinese banks and brokerages. 相对于胡处理陈的铁腕而言,胡和温家宝总理在驾驭经济问题时,有时显得不那么坚定。不象他的前任,朱镕基,在2001年冒着巨大的政治风险领导中国加入世界贸易组织。温在面对汹涌的经济“民族主义”时,有着更多的妥协。不知他是否听到国际上对新法规的抱怨。这项规定在本月由新华社发布,目的是加强对海外驻华新闻机构关于发布新闻的管理。此项规定被看作是新华社排挤如路透社和彭博这样的国际新闻机构,垄断有关中国银行证券的财经新闻及信息的供应。 The shake-up in Shanghai might at least prompt new thinking about the chaotic management of China's social-security funds. These (apart from a centrally managed reserve fund) are currently in the hands of local officials who have a tendency to invest them rashly or to pocket them. The illicit flow of this money into real-estate ventures gives local governments all the more incentive to pump up property prices. Shanghai Daily, a state-run English-language newspaper, quoted an official as saying that from next year the funds might be supervised centrally and entrusted to “independent fund managers”. That is long overdue. 上海政坛的“重组”事件至少给人们对中国社保基金的混乱管理提供新的思维。这些基金是由地方官员掌管的(不同于外汇储备归中央统一管理),他们或是盲目投资,或是衷饱私囊。资金违规进入房地产市场,导致房产价格升高,官员从中牟利。一家官方的英文报纸,Shanghai Daily, 引用一名官员的话说,从明年起基金将被统一监管。交由“独立的基金经理”托管。不过来的有点太晚了。 September 23 [音乐]Maroon 5--She Will Be Loved 高口笔试过后,心情又变得适合起音乐来,于是将辅导书模拟卷束之高阁,把MP3中的听力录音统统删掉,换上音乐,享受大考之后的轻松和惬意。
MP3中的音乐当然如溪水般常换常新,当然也有些歌曲是自己从来不删的,它们就这样沉淀下来,不断缩小着播放器的容量。Maroon 5的“She Will Be Loved”便是其中一首。
这是一首第一次听到便知道自己不会删去的歌,而这不仅仅是因为动听的旋律和磁性的嗓音。吸引你的是这首歌蕴含的感染力,没有哗众取宠的修饰,没有刻意的别出心裁,使人在歌手的吟唱中细细体会忧伤和希望。
Lyrics: Beauty queen of only eighteen She had some trouble with herself He was always there to help her She always belonged to someone else I drove for miles and miles And wound up at your door I've had you so many times but somehow I want more I don't mind spending everyday Out on your corner in the pouring rain Look for the girl with the broken smile Ask her if she wants to stay awhile And she will be loved She will be loved Tap on my window knock on my door I want to make you feel beautiful I know I tend to get so insecure It doesn't matter anymore It's not always rainbows and butterflies It's compromise that moves us along My heart is full and my door's always open You can come anytime you want I don't mind spending everyday Out on your corner in the pouring rain Look for the girl with the broken smile Ask her if she wants to stay awhile And she will be loved She will be loved I know where you hide Alone in your car Know all of the things that make you who you are I know that goodbye means nothing at all Comes back and begs me to catch her every time she falls August 23 [金融]Ups and Downs -- 人民币:涨跌起伏Volatility, of sorts, creeps into the yuan-dollar exchange rate
人民币美元汇率暗藏变数 IF THE euro, say, rises by 0.2% against the dollar, yen or Swiss franc one day and falls by almost as much the next, no one pays much attention. But such oscillations in the value of the yuan against the dollar are rare. The Chinese currency's 0.28% fall on August 15th was its biggest in a day since China revalued the yuan in July 2005. The next day it gained 0.24% at one point, before closing 0.16% up; only three times has it risen by more in a day.
如果说欧元对美元、日元或是瑞士法郎的汇率一天之内上涨0.2%,次日又回落相同的幅度,没有人会对此过多在意。但这种振荡却极少发生在人民币兑美元的汇率上。8月15日,人民币兑美元下跌0.28%,创下2005年7月人民币升值以来的单日最大跌幅。而就在第二天,人民币又急剧回升0.16%,最大涨幅曾达0.24%,史上单日涨幅超过这一数字的仅有三次。
These jumps have not come entirely out of the blue. Over the past few months, the yuan's exchange rate has been getting more volatile, by its own modest standards. Since February or March, notes Stephen Jen, of Morgan Stanley, the yuan's deviations from the average of bid and ask rates have become markedly larger (see chart), without ever testing the maximum permitted each day. (The rate is allowed to vary by 0.3% either side of a parity set daily by China's central bank.)
这些大起大落来得并不突然。以人民币自己的标准来衡量,几个月来其汇率已变得越来越不稳定。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley) 的Stephen Jen指出,自二三月份起,尽管还未触及日涨跌幅的最高上限(中国央行规定为0.3%),人民币汇率已明显偏离买入价(bid rate)和卖出价(ask rate)的平均水平。
This being China, it is unlikely that the increase in volatility is entirely accidental. Simon Derrick, of the Bank of New York, thinks that remarks earlier this month by Wu Xiaoling, vice-governor of the central bank, now look “like a clear statement of intent”. Chinese firms, said Mr Wu, should hedge their currency risk using derivatives, as foreign companies do.
就中国而言,其汇率变得越来越不稳定绝非偶然。纽约银行Simon Derrick认为中国央行副行长吴晓灵本月早些时候的评论现在看来“像是表达真实意图的明确声明”。吴称,中国公司应当像外国公司一样,利用金融衍生产品来防范汇率风险。
Another possibility is that the authorities may have wanted to show speculators as well as Chinese firms that the currency is not a one-way bet. And Mr Jen suggests that the yuan's fall on August 15th may have been intended to help state enterprises or banks with dollars to sell.
还有一个可能就是中国当局想让投机者和中国公司明白,人民币并非单向赌博的工具。而Jen先生暗示,人民币8月15日的贬值也可能是当局为了帮助国有企业或银行抛售美元而有意为之。 The big question, though, is whether extra variability heralds a faster overall rate of appreciation of the yuan—for instance, by letting it edge towards the top of its trading band more often. From 8.11 to the dollar after revaluation, it has risen only to around 8.00. A stronger yuan may be in China's interest, by helping to cool its boiling economy. However, the Chinese are in no hurry—especially, perhaps, when being pressed by American politicians to go much faster. It may be pure coincidence that the yuan's biggest fall came just after Henry Paulson, the American treasury secretary, said that the Chinese needed “to show much more flexibility” on the currency. Then again, it may not be.
然而关键问题是,这种大幅的波动是否预示着人民币将加快全面升值的步伐,比如允许人民币更频繁地接近交易涨跌幅的最高上限。重新估值后的人民币对美元升幅也仅从8.11涨到8.00左右。坚挺的人民币可抑制经济过热,对中国来说是件好事。然而,中国并不急于进一步加快人民币升值的步伐,特别是在美国政客的压力之下。在美国财长Henry Paulson发表中国需要“更灵活的货币政策“的言论后,人民币的便创下最大日跌幅,这也许纯属巧合,但也可能是有心为之。
The Americans are sure to keep up the pressure. Mr Paulson is due to visit China after the IMF meetings in Singapore next month. And Charles Schumer and Lindsay Graham, two senators, have said that they will revive a bill threatening tariffs of 27.5% on imports from China unless there are signs that it will give way over the yuan. The senators' bill is unlikely to find its way on to the statute book, but is a worrying sign all the same.
美国肯定会继续施压。下月,参加完在新加坡举行的国际货币基金组织会议之后,Paulson先生将造访中国。参议员Charles Schumer和Lindsay Graham已声称,除非有迹象表明中方将放宽人民币政策,否则他们将会重新提出议案,威胁向来自中国的产品征收27.5%的关税。虽然参议员的这项提案很难成为法令,但无论如何是令人担忧的征兆。
Some observers urge calm. China, says David Bloom, of HSBC, is moving towards a flexible currency; remember, he adds, that only in the late 1970s did Western countries become fully flexible and convertible. His bank puts weight on a recent statement by Fan Gang, an academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, that China could cope with an annual appreciation of 5%. That's slower than America would like—but about as fast as it can expect.
一些观察家敦促(美国)保持冷静。汇丰银行的David Bloom说,中国正在朝着灵活的货币制度的方向努力。他还补充说,要知道西方国家也不过是在20世纪70年代末期才实现货币真正的浮动和可兑换。他所在的银行很看重中国央行货币政策委员会一位学术委员樊刚近期的评述:中国只能应付人民币年升值5%。这不及美国的要求,但也许是它所能期待的最快涨幅了。
<译自the Economist (2006/08/19)> |
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